The Green Transition in Africa: A Balancing Act Between Growth and Sustainability
Africa is at a critical crossroads, where the need to decarbonise for the planet’s future clashes with the continent’s ongoing struggle to meet its energy demands. With 600 million people still without access to electricity, and coal providing an affordable and reliable source of power, Africa faces a complex dilemma. While the global push towards a green transition is essential for achieving climate goals, it poses significant challenges for the continent, where the cost of such a shift could be substantial.
The International Energy Agency has highlighted that under net-zero pathways, approximately 13 million fossil-fuel jobs could disappear globally by 2030, even as 30 million new clean-energy roles emerge. However, the majority of these new jobs are expected to be created in countries that already have established renewable-energy manufacturing and installation capabilities. In many parts of Africa, where local production and technical training remain limited, the risk of job losses could outweigh the benefits of early gains.
South Africa serves as a prime example of this tension. Around 100,000 coal miners and power-plant workers may face redundancy as coal is phased out. These workers often possess years of technical and operational experience, but their skills are not easily transferable to renewable-energy projects. For them, reskilling—not just rhetoric—will determine whether the green transition is truly just.
A just transition must do more than protect those who stand to lose; it must also prepare those who will build the future. This requires designing policies that support affected workers through retraining while simultaneously developing a pipeline of talent to lead the rollout of renewable energy. A coal plant supervisor, for instance, manages complex schedules, safety protocols, and multidisciplinary teams—skills that can directly translate into overseeing renewable projects with the right certification.
Across Africa, deliberate reskilling efforts are already underway. In Nigeria, engineers from the oil and gas sector have been redeployed to solar and energy-efficiency projects through national transition initiatives. In Kenya, the expansion of geothermal energy has created new opportunities for technicians previously employed in thermal power. In Rwanda and Morocco, energy workforce programmes have successfully retrained engineers and technicians from mining and fossil sectors to work in hydropower and wind operations. In Ghana, the Bui Power Authority has retrained hydropower and thermal engineers to manage the country’s growing solar and hybrid projects, showcasing how energy expertise can evolve in response to market demands.
While much of the global climate conversation has focused on policy and finance, the real challenge lies in human capability. Without a deliberate plan for reskilling, the continent’s green shift could create as many redundancies as green jobs. This perspective is rarely viewed through the lens of talent: How will this transition impact those employed in the fossil-fuel economy, and how will new talent be developed to build and manage the industries of the future?
According to the PMI Talent Gap Report (2025–2035), Sub-Saharan Africa will need between 1.6 million and 2.1 million additional project professionals by 2035, representing an increase of up to 75%. Yet education and training systems across the continent are not keeping pace. The result is a skills deficit that threatens to stall progress in the very sectors most central to the energy transition: construction, energy, infrastructure, and technology.
Data from the Project Management Institute suggests that about 10% of global project investment is lost annually due to poor performance. In Africa’s infrastructure pipeline, this translates into billions in wasted investment. This is where project management becomes the unsung cornerstone of Africa’s green economy. A just transition demands talent transformation—the deliberate effort to retrain and redeploy workers from the old energy economy into the new one.
Africa’s green transition will not succeed solely on goodwill. Governments, development partners, and businesses must act now to integrate project management training into climate finance and just transition plans. Building capability must be accompanied by building capacity. If climate investments continue to outpace human investments, the gap between ambition and delivery will only widen.
PMI is already collaborating with governments, academia, and industry across Africa to strengthen project delivery capability. These partnerships are embedding project management frameworks into public infrastructure initiatives, while universities are integrating PMI-aligned curricula to prepare a new generation of professionals for project-based roles in the green economy. By prioritising skills development alongside climate ambition, Africa can ensure that its energy transition is not only visionary but viable.