Understanding Earth System Tipping Points
New research has revealed that the world is approaching the first of many Earth system tipping points. These are critical moments in the planet’s climate system where even minor changes can lead to major, often irreversible consequences. Some of the most well-known global tipping points include the melting of ice sheets at the north and south poles, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, and the collapse of vital ocean currents. If these occur, food systems could break down and sea levels would rise rapidly.
Tipping points also accelerate global warming, increasing the likelihood of more frequent and severe climate disasters. As a sustainability scientist, I was part of a large, global team that recently updated the 2023 Global Tipping Points report. This report identifies “negative” tipping points that could trigger devastation worldwide and highlights the potential for “positive” tipping points—where desirable changes become widespread, such as finance flowing towards nature-supporting activities.
The Urgency of Climate Action
In our second Global Tipping Points Report, we explain that some damaging Earth system tipping points are already being crossed. Others could soon follow, with potentially catastrophic impacts on societies and nature globally. It’s important to note that negative climate tipping points cannot be reversed. This means that if the world underestimates how certain events could trigger a climate tipping point, we might run out of time to act before the damage becomes irreversible or too severe to adapt to.
Governance must change to address this new reality. Small, step-by-step changes are not sufficient for the world to avoid the worst impacts of global warming. Climate action must accelerate radically to eliminate greenhouse gas emissions that stress ecosystems and to regenerate nature before it is too late.
Interconnected Risks
Climate tipping point risks are interconnected. Most interactions between them are destabilizing. This means that tipping one system over into disaster makes tipping another more likely. The negative impacts would cascade through the ecological and social systems we depend upon, creating damage that keeps mounting up.
Global temperatures in both the atmosphere and oceans have recently spiked. Oceans absorb 90% of extra heat from the earth that isn’t absorbed by plants. This is a sign that Earth’s climate is becoming increasingly unstable. While these spikes are not tipping points themselves, they can trigger them.
For example, if the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapses, then West Africa will likely experience more frequent and severe droughts. This is because these currents move warm surface water to the north and cold deep water to the south in the Atlantic, moving heat around and regulating global climate. Without it, the West African monsoon will be disrupted, reducing rainfall and causing hotter, drier conditions.
There is growing evidence from observations and modeling that the AMOC could be at risk of either entering a tipping point or collapsing.
Another example is Africa’s coral reefs. Over 80% of the world’s coral reefs, including reefs in Kenya, Senegal, Cape Verde, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Madagascar, were hit by the worst global coral bleaching event on record between 2023 and 2025. Coral bleaching occurs when coral becomes stressed due to excessive water heating. Prolonged bleaching can lead to widespread coral death.
As coral protects the coast from wave damage and provides food and income from tourism, coral death in African waters would be a huge problem.
Taking Action
All major Earth systems are becoming more likely to reach dangerous tipping points because of global warming. However, some are also being pushed closer to collapse by local human activities, such as deforestation or overfishing. This means there is a chance to act to stop the damage—for example, by reducing deforestation of the Amazon or reducing overfishing of coral reefs.
The world must act now. The window to prevent serious damage is closing fast. Countries have committed to reducing greenhouse gases but not enough to stop global warming from exceeding 2°C above pre-industrial times by 2100.
Political instability, conflicts, and attacks on climate science are making coordinated action harder. The risks of delaying are too great. World governments need to radically speed up climate mitigation (steps to reduce emissions to protect the planet and people from climate change).
Positive Tipping Points
Positive tipping points are examples of actions that could lead to exponential change. Our report identified that these already exist. For example:
- Solar photovoltaic panels are decreasing in price so that more people can switch to solar energy.
- Battery storage systems that store power are becoming more affordable and can be recycled.
- Judgements against fossil fuel companies in climate lawsuits.
These positive tipping points are starting to interact and reinforce one another.
What Needs to Happen Next
The International Court of Justice recently ruled that world leaders must take immediate action, on a level that hasn’t been seen before, to prevent climate change. When they do this, justice needs to be at the center to make sure that preventing climate change does not have unintended negative consequences. For example, mining rare earth metals to meet growing demand for battery storage can unfairly displace communities living on mineral-rich lands.
Another example is the race to mine the seabed for minerals to make renewable energy components. This risks damaging or destroying entire, under-explored ecosystems and the ecosystem services they provide.
New harms must not be caused while trying to stop climate change.