The Curse of Reformers: A Pattern Through History
The question of whether reformer-rulers are cursed has long intrigued historians and political analysts. From ancient times to modern-day leaders, a recurring pattern emerges: those who attempt to fix the messes left by their predecessors often face dire consequences. This phenomenon can be seen in the lives of Sultan Tuman Bay the Second of Egypt, Emperor Louis XVI of France, Mikhail Gorbachev of the USSR, and now Nigeria’s President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Each of these leaders tried to enact reforms, yet their efforts were met with resistance, leading to their downfall.
Sultan Tuman Bay the Second ruled Egypt for less than a year, from October 1516 to April 1517. Despite his attempts to reverse the empire’s decline, he was widely maligned by history, earning the title “the much maligned sultan.” His reign ended abruptly, and his legacy is one of short-lived reform and lasting criticism.
Similarly, Emperor Louis XIV of France, known as the Sun King, ruled with an iron fist, leaving his successors with a kingdom in financial ruin. His grandson, Louis XVI, inherited a country on the brink of disaster. Although Louis XVI attempted to implement Enlightenment-era reforms, they came too late and too little to prevent the French Revolution. His efforts to limit the nobility’s power and regulate the grain market led to widespread discontent, culminating in his execution by guillotine in 1793.
Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, introduced glasnost and perestroika to reform the communist system. However, these changes were not enough to prevent the collapse of the USSR. As he opened the door to more openness, the people seized the opportunity to dismantle the Iron Curtain, marking the end of the Soviet era.
Do Rulers Learn from History?
History teaches lessons, but it seems that rulers often fail to heed them. The people have a remarkable capacity for endurance, while leaders tend to take their populations for granted. Reforms typically arrive when anger is at its peak, and they often come too late to prevent catastrophe.
Philosophers like Georg Wilhelm Friedrich Hegel and Aldous Huxley have noted that humanity tends to repeat its mistakes. Hegel famously said, “The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history,” while Huxley added, “That men do not learn very much from the lessons of history is the most important of all the lessons of history.”
This tragic cycle of forgetting past errors continues to shape political events today. For example, if US President Donald Trump were to invade Nigeria, would he have learned anything from history? If Nigeria allowed such an invasion, would it have learned anything from its own past?
Trump’s Possible Motives for Invading Nigeria
Donald Trump has not explicitly stated that he will invade Nigeria, but he has made ominous remarks about the situation. He claims that there is ongoing genocide against Christians in Nigeria, carried out by Islamic fundamentalists, and that the government is not doing enough to stop it. He also criticizes the extra-judicial killing of Christians based on false blasphemy allegations.
These concerns are not unfounded. In my hometown of Owo (Ogho), at least 42 worshippers were killed in cold blood at St. Francis Catholic Church on 5 June 2022 by Islamist terrorists. Before President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, many state governments in the north turned a blind eye to these atrocities. Notable Islamic leaders, traditional authorities, and opinion leaders remained silent, allowing the genocide to continue unchecked.
Is the Muslim-Muslim Ticket Responsible?
It is a fallacy to blame the Muslim-Muslim ticket of Tinubu and Shettima for the ongoing genocide in the north. The genocide began under the Muslim-Christian ticket of Muhammadu Buhari and Pastor Yemi Osinbajo. It was during their administration that the military’s efforts to combat terrorism were undermined. Only after Buhari’s exit and Tinubu’s rise did some efforts begin to tackle the issue, albeit tepidly.
Fifth columnists, remnants of the Buharists, and Northern Muslim elites aligned with Islamic fundamentalism continue to hinder progress in the fight against terrorism. These groups must be identified and neutralized to make meaningful strides.
Are Trump’s Motives Truly About Genocide?
While Trump’s claims about genocide may serve as a convenient excuse, it is likely that other motives are at play. Historically, the US has gone to war to advance core national interests, secure resources, or eliminate threats to its global dominance. Some Nigerians believe that Nigeria’s alignment with BRICS, support for Hamas/Iran, rejection of gay/lesbian laws, and the attempt to offload unwanted criminals on Nigeria could be the real reasons behind the threatened invasion.
Others argue that America is jealous of Nigeria’s potential and seeks to force its predictions of Nigeria’s disintegration onto the country. While these arguments are plausible, the ongoing genocide in Nigeria cannot be ignored or swept under the carpet.
What Needs to Be Done?
President Tinubu must engage with President Trump and commit to addressing the genocide in the country. The US should assist in this effort. Political Sharia, which fuels Islamist extremism in the north, must be abolished. Nigeria is a secular state, and no state should claim to be Muslim or Christian. Minorities must have their rights protected, and there should be no negotiation with terrorists.
Fifth columnists impeding the war effort must be identified and removed. Otherwise, the cycle of violence and instability will continue.