Political Turmoil in Tanzania and Regional Impacts
The recent general election in Tanzania has sparked widespread controversy, with allegations of rigging and a lack of transparency. The election, held on October 29, is now considered the most discredited in the nation’s history. International observers, including the African Union and Southern African Development Community, have raised concerns about its legitimacy. Incumbent President Samia Suluhu Hassan and her party, Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM), are accused of manipulating the process to secure their dominance.
Before the polls even took place, the credibility of the election was already in question. Prominent opposition figures, such as Tundu Lissu from Chadema and Luhaga Mpina from ACT-Wazalendo, were barred from participating under questionable circumstances. In Mpina’s case, this occurred despite a court ruling that allowed him to run. This exclusion fueled public discontent, leading to mass protests in Dar es Salaam and other major cities.
In response, the Samia administration imposed an internet shutdown and a curfew. Security forces cracked down violently on protesters, resulting in deaths, arrests, and injuries. The internet blackout caused significant economic damage, costing the local economy $238 million during the weeklong disruption, according to NetBlocks, a global internet monitor. The shutdown affected digital transactions, forex trade, social services, and mobile money transfers.
NetBlocks criticized the government for violating citizens’ rights to freedom of expression and access to information. They cited violations of Articles 9 and 19 of the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights. Similarly, the digital rights group Paradigm Initiative condemned the shutdown, arguing that it undermines human and economic rights. Gbenga Sesan, executive director of Paradigm Initiative, stated that every internet shutdown erodes trust, investment, and human potential.
The lockdown also impacted businesses, both within Tanzania and across borders. Many companies faced significant revenue losses, and some were destroyed or looted by rioters. The port of Dar es Salaam, one of East Africa’s busiest, shut down for nearly a week, forcing shipping lines to divert cargo to Mombasa port, which was already experiencing congestion.
Economic Consequences and Regional Impact
To address the crisis, the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) implemented measures to ease the burden on Mombasa port. These included waiving charges for customers to move cargo quickly and redirecting shipments to Lamu port. Additionally, transit cargo that had been stuck for over 21 days was rerouted to Nairobi and Naivasha inland container depots.
KPA Managing Director Capt William Ruto emphasized that these actions were a direct response to the situation in Tanzania. He noted that Mombasa was expecting an influx of ships until the end of January next year. With the port handling around 3,500 twenty feet equivalent units (TEUs) per day, the increased cargo volume strained operations further.
At the container terminals, uncollected cargo containers formed long stacks. To manage this, KPA and Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) held a crisis meeting, deciding that importers with long-stay cargo would need to clear it at container freight stations (CFSs) in Mombasa. Domestic containerized cargo not cleared within five days would be moved to CFSs, adding costs for traders.
Despite the challenges, the Kenya government waived 100% of accrued storage and warehouse rent for long-stay cargo upon submission of a waiver application for 30 days. Shipping lines were directed to waive container detention and demurrage charges to ensure the success of the operation.
Financial Markets and Trade Concerns
The climate of uncertainty in Tanzania could lead to capital flight, even as the new administration attempts to reassure investors. The Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) faces risks as trading on cross-listed stocks remained muted following post-election violence.
Five companies—KCB, East African Breweries Ltd, Kenya Airways, Jubilee Holdings Ltd, and Nation Media Group—are cross-listed on the DSE. Overall trading on the Tanzanian stock market, largely driven by local investors, remained lukewarm this week, as international concerns over human rights abuses and democratic space persisted.
Stockmarket leaders in Kenya and Rwanda expressed worry about the situation but noted that the spillover effect on the DSE is yet to be felt. Frank Mwiti, CEO of the Nairobi Securities Exchange, said that if the volatility persists, more liquidity could flow to the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE).
Regional Trade and Infrastructure Vulnerabilities
Kenya Association of Manufacturers warned that the disruption in Tanzania could threaten regional trade. The closure of the Central Corridor, serving EAC’s landlocked states, highlighted the region’s vulnerability. Simon Kaheru, vice-chairman of the East African Business Council, emphasized the significance of the situation for regional integration.
Despite the resumption of port activities in Dar, the Northern Corridor continues to experience increased traffic due to diverted cargo. Andrew Mwangura, a maritime expert, noted that the increased demand for trucking services on the Northern Corridor could drive up transport costs, putting pressure on consumer prices across the region.
Political Isolation and Regional Reactions
Political analysts predict that Samia’s Tanzania may face isolation following the disputed election. Only four heads of state attended her low-profile swearing-in ceremony, held inside a military parade ground rather than a public venue. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who recently became interim chairperson of SADC, was clear that “there was no election in Tanzania.”
Regional leaders appear hesitant to lend overt legitimacy to the transition, signaling a cautious approach. Burundi’s President Evariste Ndayishimiye and Somalia’s Sheikh Muhamud were the only East African Community (EAC) heads of state present at the swearing-in in Dodoma.
While the US has expressed concerns about Tanzania’s potential alignment with China, the focus remains on the broader implications of the political turmoil. As Uganda prepares for its 2026 elections and Kenya for 2027, the Tanzanian chaos serves as a cautionary tale for regional stability.