The ODM’s Political Dilemma in 2027
The future of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) is at a crossroads as the party grapples with the absence of its former leader, Raila Odinga. Dennis Onyango, a long-time communications aide to Odinga, has raised concerns about the party’s ability to field a viable presidential candidate for the 2027 elections. His remarks have sparked significant debate within the party and among its supporters.
A Party in Disarray
Onyango highlighted that the death of Raila Odinga has left the ODM disoriented. Members are divided on whether to back an external candidate or attempt to produce their own. In a rare public statement, he outlined what he believes is the only viable path forward for the party. Speaking in Nyatike, Migori County, on 8 November, Onyango argued that those within ODM who still believe the party has the strength to mount a serious presidential bid in 2027 are deluding themselves.
He emphasized that Raila was the only figure within ODM with the national appeal and energy to carry the party’s flag. Now that he is gone, the party cannot pretend that things will continue as usual, Onyango said. He questioned who within the party could possibly succeed where Raila did not, given that he failed five times despite his charismatic disposition and appeal.
No Candidate, No Future
“The candidate that ODM or Luo Nyanza would have had is Raila, who is dead. There’s no candidate. Let us be honest that ODM can produce now and win the presidency if it defeated Raila five times. There is nobody we can produce now and reach Raila’s level who wants to waste our time telling us to wait that they’ll give us direction in 2027,” he said.
Onyango argued that the most realistic option for ODM is to form coalitions with other leaders who have a stronger chance at the ballot. Given the current political landscape, he suggested that ODM would be better off aligning with either President William Ruto or former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.
Strategic Alliances
However, Onyango noted that Gachagua’s past hostility towards Raila makes Ruto the more likely partner. He added that working with Gachagua would be difficult for ODM, especially considering the structured approach already adopted by the United Opposition.
Onyango called on National Treasury official and former ODM national chairman John Mbadi to guide the Luo community and help identify the most strategic political path ahead of 2027. He urged Mbadi to be straightforward with Luos and tell them that the party does not have a candidate it can produce now.
“Also tell ODM they don’t have a candidate they can produce now. So we should look at working with Ruto or going to Gachagua. On Gachagua’s side, they have already organised themselves until he said 50% of the government will be his, and then the rest will share. Luos are not in that calculation. The only place with space is with Ruto. That’s where we are,” he said.
Looking Ahead
As the political landscape continues to evolve, ODM faces a critical decision. The party must choose between remaining independent and risking further decline or forming strategic alliances to remain relevant. Onyango’s comments reflect a growing sentiment within the party that the old ways may no longer work.
With the 2027 elections approaching, the ODM must find a way to navigate this challenging period. Whether through internal reforms or external partnerships, the party’s future depends on its ability to adapt and respond to the changing political environment.
