The President’s Campaign Against the Narcotics Trade
Sri Lanka is witnessing a significant initiative aimed at combating the narcotics trade, led directly by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake. The campaign, titled “A Nation United” or “Ratama Ekata,” was launched at the Sugathadasa Indoor Stadium with a large and representative gathering in attendance. During his speech, the President highlighted that the narcotics issue has permeated political parties, with some individuals holding positions as councillors and chairpersons, while others are preparing for elections. He emphasized that this network has thrived under the protection of certain politicians.
The President acknowledged the efforts of the Police and Armed Forces in their fight against the narcotics trade but noted that many have succumbed to the financial power of these criminals. This has led to the formation of a “black state” within legitimate state institutions designed to ensure national and public security.
“The government is adopting a multifaceted approach, including arrests, rehabilitation, prevention, public awareness, sports, and cultural activities. Tackling this menace alone is impossible; we must unite and act collectively,” he stated.
While the President’s initiative received positive feedback, opposition parties remain skeptical about its effectiveness, drawing comparisons to the “Clean Sri Lanka” campaign which they claim has not maintained its momentum. However, the government argues that the battle against narcotics involves various state agencies and law enforcement authorities, citing recent arrests and deportations of alleged underworld leaders as evidence of progress.
Fiscal Discipline and Budget Challenges
President Dissanayake, who also serves as Finance Minister, has been focused on finalizing the upcoming budget. Former parliamentarian Harshana Suriyapperuma, now appointed as Finance Ministry Secretary, is assisting him in this endeavor. The challenge lies in balancing fiscal discipline with the parameters set by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to ensure continued financial assistance while meeting public expectations.
Analysts predict that no new taxes affecting the majority of the public will be introduced in the coming budget. However, the second stage of a public sector wage increase is likely to be included. The budget is expected to meet all IMF stipulations, although it may be “people-friendly” to maintain the ruling Jathika Jana Balavegaya’s (JJB) popularity ahead of provincial council elections.
Opposition Rally and Political Dynamics
Amidst these developments, the opposition is planning a joint rally titled “Maha Jana Handa” (Great Peoples’ Voice) at Nugegoda on November 21. The theme of the rally centers on the opposition’s claim that the government is moving towards dictatorship. Key promoters include the United National Party (UNP), Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), and Pivithuru Hela Urumaya. The unity among past rivals is seen as politically significant.
However, several parties, including the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) and Sarvajana Balaya led by Dilith Jayaweera, will not participate. The Jathika Nidahas Peramuna led by Wimal Weerawansa is also likely to be absent.
General Election Considerations
The absence of the SJB, which commanded 17% of the vote and 40 seats in the 2024 general election, poses a challenge for the opposition. Its leader, Sajith Premadasa, came second in the presidential poll with 33% of votes. Opinion within the SJB remains divided over negotiations with the UNP and support for the November 21 meeting.
The SJB recognizes that the popularity of the UNP, SLPP, and SLFP is currently low. The UNP and SLFP are in the shadows of their former glory, while the SLPP faces accusations of corruption. The government is investigating these allegations seriously, leading to prosecutions of previous high-profile politicians.
This aspect, which is a main campaign promise of the JJB, has public support. Many SJB members realize that those being found guilty are primarily from the SLPP. As such, aligning with them could be detrimental to the SJB.
Principled Politics and Strategic Alliances
With this history, the SJB believes it is better positioned if it practices principled politics rather than joining a political bandwagon dominated by the SLPP. This view is shared by SJB leader Sajith Premadasa, who previously refused to form a government with the SLPP when offered the Premiership by Gotabaya Rajapaksa.
The SJB is also wary of the UNP’s strategy in promoting the Nugegoda rally while engaging in reconciliation talks. Although ideologically similar, the two parties face leadership issues. Recent discussions between the SJB and UNP reached a critical stage when the SJB identified the core obstacle as the leadership of a potential alliance.
Premadasa, while allowing SJB representatives to continue negotiations, emphasized that any alliance would need to be under the SJB’s leadership, a condition the UNP is unlikely to accept.
Real Alliance Possibilities
Political observers suggest that the UNP might be laying the groundwork for a partnership with the SLPP, despite ideological differences. Recent history shows that Wickremesinghe was elected President with the support of the SLPP and governed with them for over two years, improving relationships with the Rajapaksa family and SLPP members.
The coming weeks will see significant events, including the government’s next budget, which will provide clues about its social and political direction. The opposition rally at Nugegoda will also reveal the true level of unity—or disunity—among opposition political parties.