The Complex Landscape of Terrorism and Insurgency in Nigeria
Terrorism and insurgency have been persistent challenges in Nigeria since 2009, particularly in the northern regions. These conflicts have led to the loss of tens of thousands of lives and the displacement of millions. In the 2025 Global Terrorism Index, Nigeria ranked sixth with a score of 7.658, an improvement from its eighth-place ranking in 2023 and 2024.
In November 2025, US President Donald Trump designated Nigeria as a “country of particular concern,” following a campaign by US Congressman Riley Moore. Moore claimed there was an “alarming and ongoing persecution of Christians” in Nigeria, citing that 7,000 Nigerian Christians were killed in 2025 alone, or about 35 per day. Trump also warned of potential direct military action against Islamist militant groups operating in the country.
Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu responded by rejecting the US characterization, stating that it did not reflect the country’s reality or values. He emphasized that successive governments had made efforts to maintain peaceful coexistence among diverse faith communities.
As someone who has researched conflicts, terrorism, and insurgent group formation in Nigeria for over a decade, I analyzed data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (Acled) to understand the scale and intensity of terrorist and insurgency activities in the past ten years. The findings indicate that it is challenging to distinguish killings based on religious affiliations. All major religions in Nigeria have been affected, with fatalities occurring across various ethnic and religious lines.
Is There a Religious Genocide in Nigeria?
Religious violence in Nigeria dates back to 1953, seven years before the country gained independence. Since then, both military and civilian regimes have struggled to curb this violence, which is often linked to issues such as ethnicity, resource management, competition for resources, and colonial boundaries. British colonialists placed different ethnic groups with varying values into one country, creating tensions that persist today.
Figure 1 shows that while the number of attacks by terrorist and insurgent groups has remained relatively consistent over the last four years, the number of fatalities has decreased. However, this chart does not provide details on the categories of people attacked. To determine if there is a disproportionate attack on Christians, I compared the number of attacks on churches and mosques in Nigeria over the last ten years.
The data reveals that non-state actors have targeted both places of worship. While there have been more attacks on churches in the last six years, the data indicates that more attacks occurred on mosques in 2015 and 2017. Given that Nigeria’s population is roughly evenly split between Christianity and Islam, with only around 0.6 percent adhering to traditional African religions or other beliefs, it is clear that both communities are under threat from terrorist and insurgent groups.
Trump’s History with Nigeria
This is the second time Trump has designated Nigeria as a country of particular concern. The first instance was in December 2020, when he criticized the Nigerian government for not doing enough to protect the safety of Nigerians, especially Christians, under the regime of former president Muhammadu Buhari.
Events leading to the latest designation began in March 2025, two months after Trump was sworn in for a second term. The US House foreign affairs sub-committee on Africa approved measures urging the president to impose sanctions on Nigeria due to the widespread persecution of Christians. Additionally, the US Commission on International Religious Freedom report on Nigeria (2025) stated that religious freedom in Nigeria remains poor. It argued that the federal and state governments continue to “tolerate attacks or failed to respond to violent actions” by non-state actors on Christians in the country.
The commission recommended that the US government designate Nigeria as a country of particular concern for “engaging in and tolerating systematic, ongoing, and egregious violations of religious freedom.”
What the Designation Means for Nigeria
Under the US International Religious Freedom Act of 1998, the “country of particular concern” status is an official classification used when a country has “engaged in or tolerated particularly severe violations of religious freedom.” This includes arbitrary execution based on faith, torture or inhuman treatment based on religion, and other denials of the rights to life, liberty, or security because of a person’s religion.
In the case of Nigeria, there is no evidence that any of these acts have been carried out by the government. The designation requires the US government to consider a range of options to address the violations identified, starting with diplomatic engagement, public condemnation, or withdrawal of assistance. Further steps could include economic sanctions and withdrawal of aid.
However, instead of engaging diplomatically with the Nigerian government, the US has already threatened sanctions, including the withdrawal of aid and direct military action.
What Should the US Do to Support Nigeria?
To support Nigeria in its fight against terrorism, the US should reconsider the classification of Nigeria and revert to the first step: diplomacy and direct engagement. Second, the US should support Nigeria’s efforts to identify the sponsors of these groups and their sources of finance within and outside the country.
Third, there is a need for a regional and international approach to combat terrorism in Nigeria and the West African and Sahel regions. The US could play a significant role in supporting organizations such as the Multi-National Joint Task Force, which was established to fight terrorism in the region.