Key Factors Influencing the Anambra Governorship Election
On Saturday, voters in Anambra State will elect the person who will govern the state for the next four years. There are 16 candidates seeking to be the governor, but four are considered major contenders, while many expect it to be a two-horse race between the incumbent governor, Charles Soludo, and Nicholas Ukachukwu of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Security Concerns
Anambra is one of the two South-east states worst hit by insecurity. Gunmen agitating for an independent state of Biafra have been carrying out frequent attacks in Anambra, killing and abducting people, especially government officials and security operatives. At least two state lawmakers have been abducted and killed in Anambra in the last three years.
Ahead of the 8 November governorship poll, security concerns are palpable in some parts of the state. Many residents have deserted some communities within Ihiala and Ogbaru LGAs due to frequent attacks by armed persons. Some of these communities are Lilu, Mbosi, Isseke, Orsumoghu, and Azia, all in Ihiala LGA. In Ogwuaniocha, a community in Ogbaru LGA of the state, deadly and frequent attacks have been linked to internal communal crises.
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared the 2021 Anambra State Governorship Election inconclusive because the commission could not deploy election officials in Ihiala LGA at the time due to insecurity in the council area. A supplementary election conducted later in the area was characterised by heavy security deployment.
John Ojinnaka, an indigene of Uhualakwa community within Lilu town, told PREMIUM TIMES in late October that residents of his and neighbouring communities fled after non-state actors took control of the communities. He listed other affected communities as Uhualakwa, Eziosu, Umuezeala, and Odilikpa.
Chris Offodile, a political analyst based in Anambra, believes that the insecurity in the state could affect voter turnout in volatile communities. “Life has not returned in those (volatile) areas. People are still sceptical about their safety,” Mr Offodile said.
Soludo’s Support for Tinubu
Mr Soludo has not hidden his support for President Bola Tinubu, even before his election as Nigeria’s president. Before the 2023 presidential election, the Anambra governor had predicted that a former governor of Anambra and the LP candidate, Peter Obi, would not win the election. He said that Mr Obi’s participation in the poll was paving the way for Mr Tinubu to win.
In August, the governor defended his support for Mr Tinubu despite their different party affiliations, claiming that he had been friends with the president for more than 22 years. Mr Soludo claimed his support for Mr Tinubu also stems from the fact that their two political parties share the “progressivism ideology.”
The governor’s support for Mr Tinubu, analysts argue, may anger some voters in APGA-dominated Anambra, where the APC and the president do not enjoy wide acceptance and support. One analyst, Emeka Umeagbalisi, argued that Mr Soludo’s romance with Mr Tinubu will not work for him in Saturday’s poll.
Zoning
Zoning is a central issue in the election. At least 10 of the governorship candidates, including the four major contenders, hail from the Anambra South District. “Anambra has agreed, though informally, on rotation of power for equity’s sake. So anyone else who is running in this election who is from another senatorial district is wasting his time or is a businessman,” Mr Offodile told PREMIUM TIMES.
The major contenders will engage in a fierce contest for votes in Anambra South, given that the majority of the candidates hail from the district. The most popular candidate is expected to cruise to victory in the district on Saturday.
Soludo’s Relationship with Obi
Mr Soludo has frequently criticised Mr Obi since the former Anambra governor announced his intention to contest the 2023 presidential election under the LP. From predicting Mr Obi’s election loss to claiming that the value of the investments made by Mr Obi while he was the governor of the state was “worth next to nothing” in Anambra, Mr Soludo has continued his attacks on the former governor.
Mr Obi enjoys massive support in the South-east, especially in Anambra State, where he served two terms as governor from 2006 to 2014. Mr Obi secured 95 per cent of the votes in Anambra during the 2023 presidential election.
Soludo’s Anti-Biafra Stance
Upon being sworn in as governor of Anambra in March 2022, Mr Soludo received praise from many Igbos for his visit to Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the outlawed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), at a State Security Service facility in Abuja. The governor then called for Mr Kanu’s release to achieve peace in the South-east.
Recently, Mr Soludo shocked many when he openly dissociated himself from the Biafra agitation and IPOB. Some analysts believe Mr Soludo’s stance against Biafra agitation may affect his reelection bid. However, another political analyst, Nonso Oguno, argued that although Igbos are usually emotional about IPOB and Biafra agitation, they are unlikely to factor that into their voting considerations on Saturday.
Anglican/Catholic Rivalry
Anambra is a predominantly Christian state, with a significant presence of Catholics and Anglicans. For years, a rivalry has existed between the two denominations in the state, frequently influencing the outcome of elections. In fact, Anglican faithful often complained that Catholics had produced most of the governors in the state.
Leaders of the two denominations always either explicitly endorsed candidates from their own denominations or encouraged congregants to support such candidates in various elections. In response, many political parties often consider religious affiliation when selecting their candidates for elections.
Soludo’s Policies
The people of Anambra have mixed perceptions of Mr Soludo’s performance. While some view the governor as an achiever, others perceive him as a technocrat with big ideas for the state, but who lags in the execution of these ideas. Many believe that Mr Soludo can deliver based on his credentials, but his performances have been below expectations, considering the ambitious manifesto he presented before the 2021 polls.
Soludo’s 2021 Campaign Promises
Mr Soludo came to power after making ambitious campaign promises that resonated with the people of Anambra. In his 72-page manifesto, he promised to transform Anambra from a predominantly informal commercial state to a formal, productive, and competitive economy. The governor also made promises regarding security, rapid industrialisation, agriculture, commerce, entertainment, and the more active participation of women at all levels (at least 30 per cent), as well as the strengthening of MSME funding and ending flooding and erosion in the state.
But has Mr Soludo fulfilled his promises more than three years after? Economically, Anambra has fared well under the governor. In 2022, when Mr Soludo took over as governor, Anambra ranked 6th nationally for fiscal performance and 7th for ease of doing business, with a Gross Domestic Product of N5.14 trillion, according to data released by BudgiT. The state’s domestic debt at the time stood at N55.72 billion, while foreign debt was $110.27 million.
According to the latest data released by BudgiT in 2025, Anambra ranked first on the fiscal performance index. This ascent to number 1 reflects the state’s consistent improvements in fiscal performance over recent years, driven by strategic initiatives aimed at boosting local revenue.
Under Mr Soludo, the state also reduced its debt burden from N55.72 billion in 2022 to N28.68 billion for domestic debt and from $110.27 million in 2022 to $103.69 million for foreign debt as of 2024.
Like in the economy, the governor also made great efforts to tackle insecurity by inaugurating the Agunechemba Security Outfit and launching Operation Udo-Ka-chi. But critics argue that the gains are below expectations, with the outfit being accused of brutality and extrajudicial killings.
Governor Soludo’s initiatives and promises on agriculture and industrialisation have fallen below expectations. Despite his recent distribution of free organic fertiliser to 20,000 smallholder farmers, the empowerment of approximately 13,000 farmers, and an irrigation project in Ayamelum LGA serving 10,000 hectares of rice fields, these initiatives have not driven the promised agricultural and industrial revolution in Anambra, which has a population of over 5.5 million.
An analysis of Mr Soludo’s appointments revealed that he failed to fulfill his promise of achieving at least 30 per cent women’s representation in governance in Anambra. For instance, in his 20-member cabinet, only five women are members, representing 25 per cent of the total number.
On MSME, the governor fared well with his ‘One Youth Two Skills Initiative’, which has resulted in the empowerment of thousands of youths in Anambra.
His promises to end flooding and erosion have yet to be fulfilled. Despite his initiatives, flooding and erosion continue to pose a threat to lives and livelihoods across communities in the state.
The fulfilled campaign promises may stimulate support for Mr Soludo’s reelection bid on Saturday, but his failures may prompt some voters to support his challengers.