Algeria’s Growing Fatigue Over the Sahara Conflict
Algeria is showing signs of growing fatigue over the decades-long dispute with Morocco over the Western Sahara, according to a recent report by Spain’s Royal Elcano Institute. The think tank suggests that Algiers is becoming increasingly disengaged from the conflict, which no longer seems to offer political or strategic advantages. This shift is evident in its absence from the October 31 UN Security Council vote on the Sahara issue, signaling a gradual withdrawal from active involvement.
The UN adopted Resolution 2797, which the report describes as a decisive turning point in the long-standing conflict. This resolution effectively closes the chapter on the 1991 peace plan, which had envisioned a referendum on the territory’s status. The report highlights that Morocco now holds a clear advantage over both the Polisario Front and Algeria, controlling approximately 80% of the territory, which the UN still classifies as “non-self-governing.”
Morocco’s Strategic Gains
Morocco’s position has strengthened through a combination of military presence and expanding international recognition. The country has gained support from major Western powers, including the United States, France, Spain, Germany, and the United Kingdom, all of which now broadly support Rabat’s autonomy plan as the most realistic and durable solution.
A key moment in this shift came in 2020 when then-U.S. President Donald Trump formally recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara. This move significantly reshaped global positions on the dispute, further solidifying Morocco’s diplomatic standing.
Since rejoining the African Union in 2017, Morocco has worked to reduce the influence of the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), which is now recognized by only 47 countries, compared to 84 in previous decades. This decline in international support has weakened the SADR’s position in the region.
Domestic Developments in Morocco
Domestically, the Elcano Institute noted that Morocco has succeeded in rallying national unity around the “southern provinces.” The country has invested heavily in infrastructure, ports, renewable energy, and job creation in the region, aiming to improve living conditions and economic opportunities for residents.
This investment has helped to strengthen Morocco’s control over the territory and reinforce its claim. The government has also focused on improving public services and security in the region, further consolidating its influence.
Challenges for the Sahrawis
Despite these developments, the report highlights the difficult conditions faced by many Sahrawis in the Tindouf refugee camps in Algeria. These camps, established in the 1970s, continue to house thousands of displaced people who have lived in limbo for decades. The lack of progress on a resolution to the conflict has left many in a state of uncertainty and hardship.
Legal and Political Context
The International Court of Justice ruled in 1975 that the Sahara was “separate and distinct” under UN processes, and the EU Court of Justice reaffirmed this in 2024. However, the Elcano Institute concluded that the latest UN resolution makes a long-promised referendum increasingly unlikely. This outcome has been seen as a significant setback for the Polisario Front and its supporters, who have long advocated for independence.
Conclusion
As Algeria shows signs of disengagement, Morocco continues to consolidate its control over the Western Sahara. The shift in international support, combined with domestic investments and military presence, has positioned Morocco in a stronger position than ever before. Meanwhile, the Sahrawis remain in a precarious situation, with little hope of a resolution in the near future.