Tanzania’s CCM Consolidates Power Amid Controversy
Tanzania’s ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) has extended its 48-year hold on power following the October 29 elections, securing both the presidency and a near-total majority in parliament. However, the legitimacy of this victory is under intense scrutiny, as key opposition candidates were either imprisoned or barred from contesting. President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner with 97.66 percent of the vote, while CCM claimed almost all parliamentary seats.
Jubilant celebrations followed among party loyalists, but the outcome has sparked widespread unrest and raised serious questions about the future of the party founded by Julius Nyerere in 1977. That a president who won by a landslide could not allow a portion of the 31.6 million voters to witness the swearing-in ceremony—held at a restricted site instead of the often-chosen Benjamin Mkapa Stadium—signals a party in a panic, uncertain about what the next five years in power may bring.
The Tanzanian Independent National Electoral Commission (Inec) took only 48 hours to count 32 million votes, amid riots, widespread insecurity, and a government-imposed blackout of communications and electricity. CCM, which prides itself on being an undefeatable nationalist party, went to elections against 16 fringe contenders after opposition Chadema and ACT-Wazalendo candidates were blocked from participating in the elections—christened by a section of the opposition as a “coronation.”
CCM’s Internal Struggle
On being sworn in, President Samia both threatened detractors and promised to preach reconciliation. “I give a warning, as a mother does, that protests and violence are unproductive. Let us choose and cherish all that benefits us. Wisdom is the right way to build our nation,” she said on inauguration day on November 3 in Dodoma. She spoke of her pet 4Rs: Reconciliation, resilience, reforms, and rebuilding.
“Let us all Tanzanians opt for wisdom over anger, prudence and wisdom than emotions, love, tolerance, unity and peace than violence,” she said. Yet this election was also a pointer to CCM’s internal struggle for survival.
According to Nicodemus Minde, a researcher at the Institute for Security Studies overseeing the East Africa Peace and Governance Programme, the party’s lack of internal democracy and elite capture by business cartels could weaken it in the long term. Moreover, the youth have mobilized in large numbers to demand greater freedom and transparency.
“There is a major generational shift, even though Nyerere’s philosophy and teachings remain influential, mainly in rural areas. New ideas, such as Magufuli’s resource nationalism, have changed the mindset of many Tanzanians,” said Dr. Minde.
Now, CCM—long accustomed to uncontested electoral dominance—is facing mounting pressure from youth and opposition groups for constitutional reforms, particularly regarding electoral laws.
Excessive Powers and Constitutional Challenges
In addition to disenfranchising voters, the riots were fueled by a constitutional provision that prohibits legal challenges to presidential results declared by Inec regardless of how flawed the process may be. Article 41(7) states: “When a candidate is declared by the Electoral Commission to have been duly elected in accordance with this Article, then no court of law shall have any power to inquire into the election of that candidate.”
CCM, formed in February 1977 through the merger of the Tanganyika African National Union (Tanu) and Zanzibar’s Afro-Shirazi Party, has consistently won elections with ease since the introduction of political pluralism in 1995. Prof Patrick Lumumba, a Kenyan lawyer and political commentator, argues that CCM need not have blocked the main opposition from contesting. He believes the party’s rural network—except in the northern region—could have offset urban opposition support, allowing President Samia to win in a fair contest.
For CCM to move smoothly toward the 2030 elections, it must demonstrate a commitment to enacting a new constitution that legitimizes dissent and permits presidential election results to be challenged in court. Tanzania continues to operate under a Constitution that not only grants excessive powers to the President but also fails to meet the demands of modern times—particularly the aspirations of the youth.
The pressing question remains: Can CCM’s longstanding system withstand the demographic shift in a country where 77 percent of the population is under 35?
Current Turmoil and Future Outlook
The current debate centers on whether CCM can leverage its historical goodwill to remain dominant and adapt to changing times, or whether it will be weakened by a new generation that is regionally and globally oriented. Former President John Pombe Magufuli, viewed as an outsider, began dismantling CCM’s entrenched oligarchs. He succeeded in disrupting the deep state but died unexpectedly in 2021 before completing the purge of cartels within the party.
Upon assuming office in 2015, Magufuli sought to break the dominance of party barons who had exploited CCM for personal gain, including former ministers, businesspeople, and local power brokers from the era of his predecessor, Jakaya Kikwete. After Magufuli’s death in 2021, many of these networks resurfaced under President Samia, who adopted a more accommodative and inclusive approach. The entrenched economic cartels—comprising monopolies, contracts, and bids—quickly adapted to the new leadership.
Thanks to its vast networks and decades of organizational superiority, CCM has remained dominant since 1977. Except in northern Tanzania, it controls local structures in rural areas where opposition is largely absent.
Analysts suggest CCM can weather the current turmoil because the opposition remains fragmented and lacks a comparable nationwide network. However, the party’s survival is not assured, especially if it fails to address youth disenchantment, fragile democratic legitimacy, and internal shifts.
According to Dr. Minde, CCM faces a growing credibility crisis if elections continue to be perceived as unfair and political freedoms are further curtailed. Many young Tanzanians are unemployed, feel politically excluded, and doubt the possibility of meaningful change. While still governed by the state, they now use social media and digital platforms to voice their discontent.
Given recent developments, CCM must tread carefully and gauge the national mood if it hopes to avoid the fate of many African liberation parties that are now either struggling or defunct. In neighboring Kenya, the Kenya African National Union (Kanu), which ruled for 39 years, is now a shadow of its former self. The same applies to Uganda’s People’s Congress and Zambia’s United National Independence Party.
Other liberation parties still in power in sub-Saharan Africa—but whose popularity has reduced recently—include South Africa’s African National Congress, Zimbabwe’s Zanu–PF, Mozambique’s Frelimo, and Namibia’s Swapo.