Strong Growth in African Air Cargo Demand
The African airlines have shown the most significant year-on-year growth in air cargo demand and capacity, according to recent data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This marks a notable shift in the global air freight landscape. The overall cargo demand achieved a major milestone by recording an increase for the seventh consecutive month.
In September, the total demand, measured in cargo-tonne kilometres (CTK), rose by 2.9%, while capacity, measured in available cargo-tonne kilometres (ACTK), increased by 3% compared to the same period last year. This positive trend reflects a broader recovery in the air cargo sector.
Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, attributed this growth to “a significant alteration of trade patterns as U.S. tariff policies, including the ending of de minimis exemptions.” These changes have had a profound impact on global trade dynamics, particularly affecting how goods are transported across different regions.
Regional Performance Highlights
The performance of different regions in September was varied. African airlines reported a 14.7% year-on-year increase in air cargo demand, with a 7.4% growth in capacity. Asia-Pacific airlines followed closely, showing 6.8% growth in demand and 4.8% in capacity.
In contrast, European, North American, and Middle Eastern carriers experienced more modest growth in air cargo demand—2.5%, 1.2%, and 0.6% respectively. Capacity growth for these regions was reported at 4.4%, 1.5%, and 5.5%.
Latin America saw the slowest growth among all regions, with a 2.2% year-on-year decrease in air cargo demand. However, capacity increased by 3.1%, indicating some level of resilience in the region’s air freight market.
Factors Influencing the Market
IATA pointed out several factors that influenced the air cargo market. There was a 7% year-on-year increase in global trade in August, which contributed to the rising demand. Additionally, jet fuel prices rose by 5.4%, despite lower oil prices, due to a tighter diesel market. This led to a doubling of the crack spread year-on-year.
The global manufacturing sector also showed signs of strengthening in September, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rising for the second month in a row to reach 51.3. New export orders improved slightly to 49.6 but remained below the 50-point expansion threshold, highlighting ongoing caution in the face of tariff uncertainties.
Trade Lane Growth and Challenges
With regard to trade lane growth, air freight volumes increased across most major trade corridors. Europe-Asia and Within Asia posted double-digit growth, while Middle East-Asia, North America-Europe, and Africa-Asia also saw notable gains.
However, some routes experienced declines. Asia-North America, Middle East-Europe, and Within Europe recorded decreases in air freight volumes.
“A decline in North America-Asia demand has set in over the last five months. But this has been more than compensated for with strong growth within Asia and on routes linking Asia to Europe, Africa and the Middle East. While many feared an unwinding of global trade, we are instead seeing air cargo adapting successfully to serve shifting market demands,” said Walsh.
Key Takeaways
- African Airlines Lead Growth: African airlines reported the highest year-on-year increase in air cargo demand at 14.7%.
- Regional Variations: Asia-Pacific followed closely, while European and North American carriers showed more modest growth.
- Challenges in Latin America: Despite a decline in demand, capacity growth was positive.
- Global Trade Trends: A 7% increase in global trade and rising fuel prices impacted the market.
- Manufacturing Strength: PMI data indicated a slight improvement in manufacturing activity.
- Trade Corridor Shifts: While some routes saw declines, others experienced strong growth, reflecting evolving trade patterns.